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Which Metro Areas Have Rising Prices and Faster Selling Time as of June 2018?

Home prices continue to increase although the pace of price appreciation has slowed. As of June 2018, the national median sales price of existing homes sold rose to a peak of $276,900, the highest level since 20001 when NAR started tracking this data. However, the pace of appreciation has been slowing. In June 2018, the national median sales price rose 5.2 percent on a year-on-year basis (2.2 percent on an inflation-adjusted basis), a slower rate of growth compared to the price appreciation of near or above 10 percent in 2013.

 

The question is: will home prices continue to increase? One way to think about this is to compare the price appreciation with days on market. If properties continue to sell at a faster pace, this means that demand continues to outpace supply, and there continues to be an upward pressure on prices. However, if properties are increasingly staying on the market longer, then this means that supply is starting to outpace demand, causing prices to fall. As of June 2018, the median list price increased compared to one year ago in 419 metro areas tracked by Realtor.com (414 in June 2017). Meanwhile, properties sold faster compared to one year ago in 495 metro areas (395 in June 2017).

The data visualization below shows the year-on-year change in median list price (Y-axis) against the year-on-year change in days on market (X-axis). Most metro areas lie on the upper left quadrant where the median list prices rose and the median days on market fell in June 2018 compared to one year ago. There are only three metro areas where days on market rose and median list prices fell: Johnston, PA; Enid, OK, and Minot, ND.

In the high price metro areas, the median list prices rose compared to one year ago, but they have slightly declined compared to May 2018 levels. In San Jose-Sunnyvale, the median list price rose compared to one year ago (14.7 percent), but the median list price decreased compared to the May 2018 level (-3 percent). In San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA, median prices rose compared to one year ago (8.7 percent) but also slightly declined from the May 2018 level (-0.4 percent). In Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA, the median list price also rose compared to one year ago (5.2 percent) but declined compared to the May 2018 level (-0.5 percent).

In summary, in many areas, demand is still outpacing supply, so there is still upward pressure on prices for now in many metro areas, although prices have started to trend downwards modestly in high-price metro areas (e.g., San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles). Affordability challenges, rising interest rates, and the modest increase in housing starts are likely exerting a downward pressure on prices. However, over the longer-term, there is still the upward demographic demand pressure from those in the 35-44 age groups (mostly millennials) who will increasingly get older, get married, have better incomes, and start forming households and buying homes. The U.S. Census Bureau projects the number of 35-44 year-old adults to increase from 41.3 million in 2018 to 47.2 million in 2028.

MedianPrices_DOM_DB4

A Dive into 2018 Member Demographics

This blog was written by NAR Research’s intern, Bronwen Leibe.

Hi again, it’s me, the research intern! Let’s take a closer look at this year’s member profile!

In the 2018 NAR Member Profile, females still make up 63 percent of all REALTORS®. This remains notably constant throughout years of experience (girl power!). Females dominate the profession, except in function breakdown; they make up a smaller percentage of broker-owners, managers with selling, and appraisers.

The median age of REALTORS® for 2018 is 54 years old. Although, there has been a slight increase in younger REALTORS® (30 years old and younger) to 5 percent.  The consistent largest age group, those 65 years and older, has increased from 17 percent to 20 percent of all REALTORS®. As a large population embarks on retirement, there will be the need for other generations to enter into the industry.

Interestingly, REALTORS® aged 45 to 54 are a larger portion with 2 or less years of experience than REALTORS® aged 30 years old and younger. Are people coming from other occupations? Well, only five percent of REALTORS® reported real estate was their first career. With 95 percent coming from another occupation, were their previous jobs helpful to a transition in real estate? Thirty-two percent of REALTORS® had a previous career in management, business, finance or sales/retail. To me, those industries’ skills are reasonably applicable to real estate.

Conjointly, education at all levels is a valuable asset for an occupation. Thirty percent of REALTORS® have had some college education, 13 percent have their Associate’s Degree. A third of real estate agents have Bachelor Degrees, while 13 percent have a graduate degree. Nonetheless, investment in your occupation is just as noteworthy as investment in your education. Seventy-two percent of REALTORS® said that real estate was their only occupation— showing that agents heavily invest their time into the industry. In fact, a considerable majority of 52 percent work 40 or more hours per week.  On top of working in real estate, two-thirds of NAR members volunteer in their communities! Already, REALTORS® play a big role in community building and it is admirable that NAR members are contributing outside of their occupation.

 

Second Quarter Single Family Metro Market Prices

The National Association of REALTORS® quarterly home prices increased again this quarter. Prices continue to drift up this quarter with 90% of the markets showing home price appreciation. We can also look at the top metro areas whose price grew the fastest. Housing affordability is down and for first time buyers qualifying incomes are rising along with the down payment on a new home. Knowing the mortgage rates and the qualifying incomes will help potential homeowners figure out what metro areas are affordable for them. Here is a look at the metro areas with the strongest price growth of the second quarter 2018, as well as a look at the yearly change in median existing single-family home prices for the top five highest and lowest growth metro areas of the second quarter 2018.

These are the top five single-family metro areas with the highest home price appreciation:

These are the bottom five single-family metro areas that had a decline in home price appreciation:

These are the most expensive metro areas for the second quarter 2018:

These are the least expensive metro areas for the second quarter 2018:

Pat A. Tracy McKnight Real Estate is the best!  Tracy did everything that came up to make my deal go through.  We had several problems to solve and Tracy was always available to make suggestions and help solve all of them.  The house needed some repair and Tracy obtained several bids for the best price.  The contractor backed out so Tracy found someone else.  Then we had an easement problem which I solved with Tracy's help.  He was always courteous and willing to help.  He is the best.  500 N Maine Street, Gladewater, TX 75647

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Customer Reviews

J. Garner,  I can not say enough good things about Tracy and Darrell.  They showed my property numerous times over the 3 year period it took to sell my property.  They ran ads in numerous papers in East Texas, including the Dallas Morning News and other papers.  They were very nice and kept me informed all the time. 

When you and your family decide to buy a house, my family strongly recommends Tracy McKnight.  You will never find anyone who is as patient and friendly.  Tracy will treat you as family.  We have had nothing but fun in the home buying process while working with Tracy McKnight.  He is truly a genuine person and will do everything possible to make the experience of home buying great! A and J Hernandez

Pat A. Tracy McKnight Real Estate is the best!  Tracy did everything that came up to make my deal go through.  We had several problems to solve and Tracy was always available to make suggestions and help solve all of them.  The house needed some repair and Tracy obtained several bids for the best price.  The contractor backed out so Tracy found someone else.  Then we had an easement problem which I solved with Tracy's help.  He was always courteous and willing to help.  He is the best.  500 N Maine Street, Gladewater, TX 75647

 

JOHN AND MARY JANE S. - "We would like to express our appreciation for Mr. McKnight helping us find our house in a great location in Longview, Tx. Being out of town he was so helpful keeping us informed as to what was available.  When we would come here he was always available to show us the houses.  We are glad to recommend Mr. McKnight to anyone planning to buy or sell their house." 

 E. and M. Stephenson "I can honestly say that Tracy McKnight Realty was above and beyond my expectations on sales and service.  Everything was done in a non-pressure attitude.  He never tried to push anything down our throats and was more than willing to show us several homes.  He even went the extra mile and helped us with inspectors and etc.  After the sale was complete he checked back with us to make sure everything was okay.  During the transaction period he made several trips to our shop in order for us to sign documents.  Courtesy, dignity, and honesty is my opinion of McKnight Realty.  They make you feel like you're the only customer when dealing with your business.  They seem like part of our extended family.  Would and will do all my realty business.  Also would refer anybody else to them."

Randall and Michele D. - "Tracy went above and beyond for us as we were looking to sell out house.  Once sold he then went above and beyond helping us buy a house.  A lot of late texts.  He always answered any questions.  We will definitely use Tracy again if we ever sell or buy another house. "

This is to express our heartfelt appreciation for your helpfulness, efficiency, and cooperation during the purchase of our new home.  Throughout the process you constantly kept us informed of all developments.  It was a pleasure to do business with you, and I happily recommend you to anyone seeking a real estate agent.       Cheers,  Bill and Wendy

Thanks for everything you did for Deb and I.  After losing my easement, you stood by me.  Thanks again Tracy.  Phil and Deb R. 

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